Throughout the Trump administration, the State Department has repeatedly called[1] for the "complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization” of North Korea[2]. Heading into Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un's diplomatic negotiations in Singapore, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reaffirmed this ambition on Monday. The talks will present numerous challenges[3] and potential pitfalls, but perhaps the greatest of all is the question of how the global community can verify that North Korea keeps any promises it might make about its nuclear arsenal.
North Korea is, of course, famously reclusive. For decades, the global community has had minimal visibility and insight into the country. Using tools like satellite imaging[4], heat sensing, and official releases from the North Korean government itself, analysts have been able to piece together some understanding of the country's nuclear weapons program as it has grown. But these examinations are limited and imperfect, due to the dearth of useful intelligence. To have a real understanding of whether North Korea abides by any commitments it makes, the international community would need drastically more transparency and access than it has ever received previously from the Hermit Kingdom.
Camouflage, Concealment, Deception
Experts caution that disarmament is an unlikely outcome of this specific meeting. But any nuclear abatement on North Korea's part, whether it comes now or later, will be incredibly difficult to monitor.
"North Korea does things in such a way where they build critical components of critical facilities in dispersed parts of the country and also underground," says Joseph Bermudez, a strategic advisor of AllSource Analysis, Inc., who analyzes satellite images of North Korea for watchdog group 38 North. "Identifying those facilities and determining what’s in them is extremely difficult, because North Korea since the mid-1960s has